Manchester United's top four prospects: Has recent revival been lucky and is it sustainable?

Manchester United’s current four-game unbeaten run in the Premier League is their longest this season and it’s revived their Champions League aspirations. Ahead of this weekend’s fixtures, United trail Tottenham Hotspur in fourth place by six points and Aston Villa in fifth by just five points.

Due to the restructuring of the Champions League next season, two countries will be handed an extra qualification place with England currently positioned to benefit based on coefficient points. It could hand Erik ten Hag a lifeline after a dismal campaign with the 2-1 win over Villa feeling like a significant moment. United, however, were fortunate to leave the Midlands with all three points and the underlying numbers suggest that the Ten Hag’s men have been somewhat fortunate on their current unbeaten run. 

Manchester United outperformed on xG in three of last four games

Manchester United have picked up ten points from their last four league games, but they’ve been outperformed on xG in three of those fixtures - the 2-1 win over Aston Villa, the 3-0 win over West Ham and the 2-2 draw with Tottenham. Those statistics would suggest they’ve been slightly lucky to pick up as many points as they have based on the chances created and raises questions over whether their current form is sustainable, unless they improve. As the table below illustrates, the only game that United outperformed their opponents on xG was in the 4-3 win over Wolves.

 The first hour against Wolves was arguably Manchester United’s best performance of the season and they enjoyed control of the game, which they’ve badly lacked throughout the season. It’s no coincidence that United’s improvement in that regard came after several key players - Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw and Casemiro - returned from injury. Ten Hag has frequently bemoaned United’s lack of “control” during games this season and it’s been a major issue as they’ve far too easY to play through. 

Manchester United have conceded fewer goals that expected this season

Manchester United’s significant injury list, especially in defence, has been a major factor behind their inability to control games this season. Remarkably, Ten Hag has been forced to name 21 different back four combinations this season, but despite that United still have the fifth best defensive record in the league with 33 goals conceded. However, the graph below highlights that United have conceded fewer goals than expected this season based on their goals conceded per game (1.38) compared to their expected goals against (xGa) per 90 (1.68).

 The graphic features the five clubs with the biggest differential between their xGa and actual goals conceded with United ranking first - 0.30 less goals conceded per game than expected. Again, this adds weight to the theory that United have been slightly fortunate this season. André Onana has received justified criticism during his first season in England but he’s kept the joint-second most clean sheets in the league and he’s saved an expected 7.68 goals - more than any other goalkeeper.

Will Manchester United secure Champions League football next season?

There’s understandably optimism around United currently given their recent improvement but there’s little margin of error in their bid to secure Champions League football next season. Ten Hag has insisted that every game must now be viewed as a “cup final” to secure that objective, starting with a trip to Luton Town on Sunday. United’s miserable results away from home against last season’s other ‘top nine’ sides has been well-documented and the victory over Villa was, remarkably, Ten Hag’s first in these fixtures. United still face trips to Manchester City, Brighton and Brentford as they aim to rectify their away record against other ‘top nine’ sides. The Red Devils also face two of this season’s three title contenders, Arsenal and Liverpool, at Old Trafford but they will gain confidence from beating both sides at home last season. Keeping key players fit will be imperative to United’s prospects but they will be buoyed by Rasmus Højlund’s recent form, which has been vital in keeping them in contention for Champions League qualification.