Why Man City want Paquetá - is the West Ham star the perfect Silva replacement?

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Manchester City are on course to replicate their treble-winning success of last season in a historic achievement but a changing of the guard in midfield increasingly feels on the horizon. Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva have been incredible players for City and pivotal to their unparalleled success under Pep Guardiola - yet speculation lingers over their futures. 

De Bruyne has experienced injury issues and he will enter the last year of his contract this summer leaving City with a dilemma over whether to offer an extension or part ways. The creative genius has already firmly cemented his standing as one of the best midfielders in Premier League history but legitimate interest from Saudi Arabia and MLS remains after De Bruyne turned down a lucrative move to the middle east last summer. Bernardo Silva postponed talk over leaving City by penning a new deal last summer but the Portuguese magician agreed on one condition - the insertion of a release clause, believed to be around €50 million. That would represent a bargain fee for one of the best and most underrated players in the world in recent season - as Transfermarkt’s Ben Littlemore explained superbly in his recent detailed article. It’s highly likely that one of De Bruyne or Silva will leave this summer and City are expected to replace them with a marquee attacking midfielder and it’s no surprise that one potential signing repeatedly crops up, Lucas Paquetá. 

Manchester City’s hold long-term interest in Lucas Paquetá

Since moving to West Ham United from Lyon, Paquetá has been one of the best players outside of the traditional “big six”. The Brazilian international possesses magnificent flair with strong defensive qualities, which are often overlooked. City’s interest in Paquetá predates his transfer to West Ham, where his performances have reinforced that he’s good enough to play for a major European club. City’s pursuit of the Brazilian’s signature last summer proved a complicated matter with the investigation into betting charges against Paquetá scuppering any potential deal. Those investigations remain active but City are expected to reignite their interest this summer, if disciplinary action is concluded before the summer. West Ham rejected a bid of €70m from the Champions League holders but finances involved in the deal won’t deter City with a near €100m release clause in Paquetá’s contract becoming active this summer. 

Why Lucas Paquetá represents the perfect Bernardo Silva replacement?

Paquetá represents a fascinating option for City and it could be argued he’s the perfect replacement for Silva due to his ability to play in similar roles and similarities in skillset. Silva has been one of City’s most important players under Guardiola due to his tactical intelligence and positional flexibility. The 29-year-old has performed a variety of roles under Guardiola, which can change weekly or regularly in game. Guardiola’s propensity to tweak his tactical approach requires positional awareness. Silva has been predominantly deployed as an inverted winger or a central playmaker role but he regularly floats into deeper positions to instigate attacks and few players are as adept as Paquetá at performing these roles.

As the graphic above illustrates, Silva and Paquetá rank almost identically in certain metrics (per90 mins) - according to FBref - and it highlights the similarities between the duo. In terms of expected goals and assists, Silva and Paquetá have registered the exact game output (0.42 xG+xA). Silva enjoys more touches than the West Ham star, due to City’s superiority as a team and possession-based style, but they still play practically the same amount of progressive passes. According to Transfermarkt data, David Moyes has predominantly played Paquetá as an advanced midfielder or from the left with the licence to roam centrally and the Brazilian (36) has more touches in the middle third than Silva (31) - another indicator of the Portuguese international’s freedom to move into different areas. As previously stated, Paquetá’s defensive contributions are often overlooked and he makes more tackles and interceptions than the Manchester City star. Paquetá also won the 4th most tackles in the league last season and it’s clear why City hold so much admiration for the midfielder with his similarities to Silva indicating that he’d be the ideal replacement. 

Is Bernardo Silva destined to join Barcelona this summer?

It’s understood that Silva has expressed an interest to join Barcelona in the past, although no official bids have been forthcoming. The Spanish giants’ financial predicament is well-documented and previous asking prices may have proved prohibitive but his release clause is amenable. Silva’s importance to Guardiola can’t be underestimated as he’s the Spaniard’s most used player across his career in management. PSG are another potential suitor for Silva but his Portugal teammate and João Félix believes he’s destined to join Barcelona - where his family are located. 

“I think I've convinced Bernardo Silva to join Barca, that's all true,” Félix said recently. “But it doesn’t depend on him right now. He asked me about places to live, places to eat, safety... everything. If he comes, Barca will be delighted with Bernardo.” Guardiola is renowned for refreshing his squad in the summer window by allowing older, experienced players to leave for younger talents and Paquetá fits the bill perfectly with doubts over the futures of De Bruyne and Silva.